Ki Young Ju, the CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has stirred the crypto community by declaring that the traditional “Bitcoin Cycle theory is dead.” His statement comes after a period of significant growth for Bitcoin, which defied earlier bear market predictions and rallied to new all-time highs, surpassing $123,000 in July.
Historically, the Bitcoin market has been characterized by a four-year cycle closely tied to its halving events, where the mining reward is cut in half. This model described phases where “whales”—large holders—would accumulate during downturns and then sell to retail investors during bull markets. However, Ju argues this pattern has now been broken.
The key change, according to Ju, is the massive influx of institutional investors, accelerated by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. “Old whales are selling to new long-term whales,” Ju wrote, pointing to buyers like pension funds, corporate treasuries, and other institutional players replacing retail. This shift creates a steadier holder base and dampens the impact of short-term speculative trading.
The data appears to support this claim. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant net inflows, directly driving the price of BTC from around $45,000 to over $120,000. This ETF-driven demand continuously absorbs the available Bitcoin supply, creating upward price pressure. Ju admitted his previous, incorrect call that the bull run was over in April, when Bitcoin was around $80,000, was based on the old models. “I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment,” he stated.
However, not everyone agrees. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has argued that Bitcoin's price movements still align closely with the classic halving-driven cycle. Nonetheless, the prevailing sentiment, shared by other analysts, is that the Bitcoin market has entered a new, more mature phase. Macroeconomic trends and regulatory developments are now expected to play a more significant role than historical patterns based on retail speculation.