A new analysis is challenging the long-held belief that Bitcoin's market cycles are dictated by its halving events, which reduce mining rewards approximately every four years. Analysts, such as James Check, argue that factors like adoption trends and market structure now play a more significant role.
Historically, the four-year cycle theory linked halvings to a supply shock that triggered bull markets. Bull market peaks occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021, following previous halvings, creating expectations for a similar pattern in 2025. However, this view is increasingly being contested. Some analysts argue the cycle isn't dead but is evolving, being overridden by bigger, longer-term forces.
Check proposes a new framework consisting of three distinct cycles: an "adoption cycle" (2011-2018) driven by early retail adopters, an "adolescence cycle" (2018-2022) marked by speculation, and the current "maturity cycle" from 2022 onward. This current cycle, according to Check, is driven by "institutional maturity and stability."
The growing influence of institutional investors, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, is seen as a key driver of this shift. The inflow of capital into these ETFs helped propel Bitcoin's price to new highs before the April 2024 halving, breaking historical patterns. Executives from firms like Bitwise and CryptoQuant argue that growing institutional investment is reshaping the market. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy has a significant impact on crypto markets only when institutional participation is high, further linking Bitcoin to traditional financial markets.
As the market matures, macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flows will likely dictate Bitcoin's price trends more than the halving event itself. This stabilization is largely attributed to deeper liquidity and the “strong hands” effect—large investors are less prone to panic selling during downturns. This shift suggests Bitcoin is entering a new phase, behaving more like a traditional asset, with forecasts relying on a broader range of economic indicators rather than focusing solely on the halving schedule.