A key Bitcoin volume indicator, known as On-Balance Volume (OBV), is signaling a potential price surge to the $130,000–$135,000 area by the third quarter of 2025. This forecast is drawing considerable attention as Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a major global asset.
The OBV indicator tracks volume to determine whether buyers or sellers are in control. It adds volume on days when the price closes higher and subtracts it on down days. Despite Bitcoin being stuck in a range between $102,000 and $112,000 since May, its OBV has continued to trend upward. This divergence between the flat price and rising OBV signals growing “buying pressure” and hidden accumulation, according to market analyst Cas Abbé.
Analysts are drawing confidence from a similar historical precedent. A similar OBV divergence in March–April 2025 preceded a robust 57% rally in Bitcoin's value. During that period, while BTC traded sideways between $76,000 and $84,000, the OBV divergence led to a significant surge. If this fractal pattern plays out as expected, it could validate Abbé's prediction.
Further bolstering the bullish case, Bitcoin appears to be forming a classic “bull flag” pattern on the daily chart. This continuation setup typically appears after strong upward moves, followed by a period of consolidation. BTC's surge to nearly $112,000 in May established the “flagpole,” and the subsequent consolidation is forming the “flag.” A confirmed breakout from this pattern would place a price target around $130,000, aligning closely with the OBV-based forecast.
Other market analysts share this sentiment. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin is expected to reach $130,000 to $150,000, owing to strong institutional inflows and a weaker dollar. Some, like analyst Stockmoney Lizards, anticipate the price to rise even higher, eyeing a year-end target of $200,000. However, it is crucial for investors to remember that cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile, and technical indicators do not guarantee future performance.