Bitcoin's supply is shrinking, and experts are bracing for a potential supply shock . Bitcoin's hard cap of 21 million coins has always been central to its appeal . However, by 2025, this built-in scarcity is no longer just a theoretical feature; it's becoming a market reality .
About 93% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, and since the network's fourth halving in April, which cut miner rewards in half, fewer new coins are entering circulation each day . At the same time, long-term holders are sitting tight . A growing share of Bitcoin is now locked in cold storage, tied up in institutional holdings or presumed lost . About 70% of the Bitcoin supply hasn't moved in at least a year, a sign that liquidity is drying up .
With the addition of increasing demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), public companies and even sovereign wealth funds, the result is a tightening market that has analysts warning of a potential supply shock, a moment when available Bitcoin on exchanges becomes too scarce to meet demand, potentially triggering sharp price moves .
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, has made Bitcoin accumulation his life's mission . Since 2020, he's turned the software company into a full-blown BTC holding vehicle, borrowing money, issuing stock and spending company cash to buy more Bitcoin . As of mid-2025, Strategy holds more than 2.75% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately 582,000 BTC) and continues to buy more every month . This aggressive approach fuels concerns that a BTC supply crisis may be on the horizon . Fewer coins available on exchanges means less liquidity, especially for new entrants or retail traders looking to buy in.
Whether it triggers a price spike depends on one thing: new demand . If retail, corporate and national buyers continue piling in, Bitcoin's limited supply could create a feedback loop of rising prices and even greater demand . “Over the long term, Bitcoin on the balance sheet has proven to be extraordinarily popular,” Saylor said . Since Michael Saylor's company (Strategy) began buying Bitcoin in August 2020, BTC's price has soared by 700% . Strategy's bold accumulation not only boosted its own stock price by 2,500% but also inspired a wave of institutional and corporate adoption .
However, Strategy has paused its bitcoin buying spree for the first time since April, leaving its current total holdings at 597,325 BTC ($65 billion) . The company continues to hold a total of 597,325 BTC — worth over $65 billion — bought at an average price of $70,982 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $42.4 billion, including fees and expenses, according to the company's co-founder and executive chairman, Michael Saylor . That's the equivalent of more than 2.8% of bitcoin's total 21 million supply and implies around $22.6 billion of paper gains .
Meanwhile, Fidelity Digital Assets reports that 550 BTC per day are now classified as “ancient,” meaning coins untouched for over 10 years, surpassing the daily mining rate of 450 BTC . This trend indicates that over 17% of the total BTC supply is now illiquid, and this figure could surge to 30% by 2026 .