Bitcoin charts, market cycle history hint at 15% short-term push to $138K . Bitcoin looks poised for an extended rally to $138,000 according to market cycle history and the current weekly trend .
Bitcoin closed its highest weekly candle at $119,310, then rallied on to $123,100 . Short-term holder NAV premium at 16% signals moderate interest, well below FOMO levels . Spot Bitcoin ETFs have entered a strong buy regime following last week's second-largest single-day inflow of $1.18 billion . Bitcoin price posted its most significant weekly gain of 8.74% since early May, closing its highest ever seven-day candle at $119,310 . In the early hours on Monday, BTC reached an all-time high of $123,100 on Binance .
With current prices around the $120,000 level, onchain data and market flows indicate the current rally could continue, especially with signs that retail FOMO is still largely absent . A key metric highlighting market sentiment among short-term holders (STH) is the Net Asset Value (NAV) premium, which compares the market valuation of STH holdings to their average cost basis . Currently, the NAV premium sits at 16%, comfortably within the “moderate” interest zone marked by green on the chart . This range (0–25%) reflects a cautious optimism among short-term investors but remains far below the historically overheated 30–35% range, where FOMO-driven purchases have typically marked local tops .
Adding to the bullish case, Glassnode underlined that Bitcoin spot volumes have jumped 50% over the past week, signaling growing participation in the rally . However, volumes still sit 23% below the year-to-date average, indicating that the broader market is not yet in full swing .
Several analysts believe Bitcoin's rally has much further to run . Hougan predicts the cryptocurrency "could end the year closer to $200,000", representing a roughly 70% gain from current levels . 10x Research has set targets of $140,000 to $160,000 for 2025, while other forecasts suggest Bitcoin could reach $130,000 to $150,000 by year-end .
Bitcoin hit a record high of over $120,000, marking a 30% yearly gain, fueled by institutional interest and positive sentiment on U.S. digital asset regulation talks .
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca warned that the next Bitcoin market downturn could be sparked organically and not through a single catastrophic event .