Macro analyst Lyn Alden shares her views on where we might be in the current Bitcoin cycle, in an interview where she explores the broader forces shaping Bitcoin's price, including liquidity trends, fiscal policy, and market structure .
While the classic four-year halving pattern has guided expectations in the past, Alden suggests that liquidity conditions and macroeconomic shifts may now be playing a more dominant role . The conversation touches on several key themes shaping the market today: the impact of political developments, the growing presence of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and whether institutional interest is changing the character of Bitcoin cycles .
Alden discusses whether current price action is part of a longer, healthier consolidation or a warning sign that the peak may already be behind us . Rather than making bold predictions, she looks at what investors should be paying attention to in the current macroeconomic environment .
According to Alden's previous research, Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period . Furthermore, in a period of a weak dollar cycle, Bitcoin could outperform U.S. stocks .
Alden had previously predicted that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by 2025, due to market shifts, liquidity events and its ability to decouple from the traditional financial system . However, with the recent tariff announcements, she lowered her forecast .
Bitcoin cycles usually last about four years and are primarily influenced by halving events . These events reduce the reward for Bitcoin miners, leading to a decreased supply of newly minted coins . This scarcity often drives the price upwards as demand outpaces supply, frequently marking the beginning of new bull cycles .