Bitcoin is facing increased volatility as US jobs data impacts expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts . On July 3, 2025, data indicated that the US labor market is stronger than expected, reducing the chances of an immediate rate cut.
Specifically, the US nonfarm payrolls data beat expectations, with 147,000 jobs added in June . The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.1% . This resulted in an immediate reversal of Bitcoin's gains as investors priced in reduced odds of a rate cut in July .
The market reaction underscores Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic announcements, particularly those affecting monetary policy. Analysts caution that the Federal Reserve may now have another reason to delay rate cuts, which could negatively impact crypto and risk assets .
However, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin in the short term. An analysis from Bitfinex suggested that if jobs data is weaker than expected, Bitcoin could reach $115,000 by early July, driven by strong institutional interest and ETF inflows . Conversely, a stronger report could lead to testing support levels around $102,000 .
Long-term forecasts for Bitcoin remain bullish, with some analysts predicting that BTC could rally towards $130,000–$150,000 by year-end . Others forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, due to increased institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury companies .
Meanwhile, neutral forecasts suggest that BTC will remain in a stable price range in the coming months, without extreme highs or lows . This outlook is often based on mixed market signals, where institutional interest supports Bitcoin, but economic uncertainty and regulatory concerns are dampening momentum .